The Btc Cycles Bull and Bear
Bitcoin Market Cycles: Historical & Predicted Timeline
Bitcoin's famous 4-year halving cycles have shown a consistent pattern: ~1064-day bull runs followed by ~364-day bears. The classic Reddit meme predicted the 2025 peak on October 6 — and it was remarkably close! As of December 21, 2025, BTC is trading around $88,000–$88,500 (~30% down from the ~$126,000 ATH).
The Famous Cycle Prediction Meme
The meme that called the October 6, 2025 ATH
Visualizing the 4-Year Halving Cycles
Classic 4-year cycle overview
Halving price dynamics (Bitcoin Magazine Pro)
ARK Invest cycle chart entering 2025
Bull vs Bear market phases
| Phase | Start Date | End Date | Duration (days) | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Market 1 | 2015-01-14 | 2017-12-17 | 1068 | Recovery from 2013–2015 bear, driven by 2016 halving and early adoption. Peaked ~$19,666. |
| Bear Market 1 | 2017-12-17 | 2018-12-15 | 363 | Regulatory crackdowns and ICO burst caused 84% drawdown to ~$3,200. |
| Bull Market 2 | 2018-12-15 | 2021-11-10 | 1061 | 2020 halving, DeFi, corporate buys (Tesla), stimulus. Peaked ~$68,789. |
| Bear Market 2 | 2021-11-10 | 2022-11-21 | 376 | Rate hikes, Luna/FTX collapses. 77% drop to ~$15,800. |
| Bull Market 3 | 2022-11-21 | 2025-10-06 | 1050 | ETFs, 2024 halving, institutions. ATH ~$126,000. |
| Bear Market 3 (predicted) | 2025-10-06 | 2026-10-05 | 364 | Post-peak correction: profit-taking, macro pressures. |
| Bull Market 4 (predicted) | 2026-10-05 | 2029-09-03 | 1064 | 2028 halving: mainstream adoption, layer-2 tech. |
| Bear Market 4 (predicted) | 2029-09-03 | 2030-09-02 | 364 | Overvaluation correction or external shocks. |
| Bull Market 5 (predicted) | 2030-09-02 | 2033-08-01 | 1064 | 2032 halving: DeFi evolution, tokenization. |
| Bear Market 5 (predicted) | 2033-08-01 | 2034-07-31 | 364 | Saturation or regulatory downturn. |
| Bull Market 6 (predicted) | 2034-07-31 | 2037-06-29 | 1064 | 2036 halving: global reserve asset status. |
Note: Based on the meme's exact pattern for illustration. Real cycles vary. Past performance ≠ future results.
Current BTC price (Dec 21, 2025): ~$88,000–$88,500
